Dr. Alon Ben-Meir
It is hard to exaggerate the immense tasks facing Syrian rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa as he attempts to peacefully consolidate power with other rebel groups and act on his far-reaching domestic agenda. All signs show that al-Sharaa is determined to set Syria on a transformational trajectory that leads to a democracy where social and political equality prevails and prevents Syria from sliding back into the abyss. With Syria having endured hell over the past 14 years, he knows that he must demonstrate to the world that he means what he says and will deliver on his promises to earn international recognition and support.
Al-Sharaa must address in stages several key issues laden with enormous difficulties that will determine whether or not he will rise to the historic occasion and resurrect Syria from the ashes that the Assad regime left behind.
Healing the Nation
Given how shattered the Syrian people are after 14 years of systematic persecution, displacement, destruction, and the death of over 600,000 Syrians, nothing is more urgent than a concerted effort by the new government to heal the nation. Uniting all rebel groups under one roof is a central first step to making such a national effort possible.
The new government must develop a new social contract by prioritizing human rights and the rule of law, and begin the monumental task of rehabilitating displaced persons. Bringing to justice those who have committed crimes against humanity, preventing arbitrary detention, and following lawful procedures are critical. Establishing a ministerial-level body for peace, justice, and reconciliation is a must, as well as prohibiting revenge and retribution, making it clear that the perpetrators will face justice while preserving evidence of atrocities to ensure future accountability.
Inclusive Political System
Given that Syria has nearly 20 different ethnic and religious groups, including multiple Christian denominations, the new political system must be inclusive and allow the participation of all groups in the political processes. It is crucial to reform the constitution to recognize the political rights of all segments of the population to ensure a smooth transition to a decentralized democratic system, including abolishing all discriminatory laws and practices and ensuring religious freedom and equality for all.
Nearly all ethnic and religious groups, except the Alawites who ruled the country, have been politically sidelined. Thus, political inclusiveness and free and fair elections are critical to social cohesiveness, which the Syrian people are in dire need of.
Socio-Economic Equality
Fourteen years of devastation left the country's social fabric shattered and economically crushed.
Economically, the new government urgently needs to repair this epic dislocation by taking the following measures among others: developing a sustainable reconstruction plan to rebuild the economy, revitalizing the private sector, and creating job opportunities; working with international investors, donors, and local organizations transparently and collaboratively to help revive the economy, and supporting financially and technically small and medium-sized businesses to stimulate growth. A custodian of donors should be created to provide financial aid tied to the reconstruction progress as well as to full adherence to democracy, where human rights reign high.
Socially, the government must invest in education, healthcare, poverty alleviation, and food insecurity. It must implement sustainable agricultural support programs and remove all obstacles to allow humanitarian aid to reach all regions, and collaborate with international countries to ensure the flow of humanitarian assistance. Most importantly, it must create the conditions that would allow refugees and internally displaced persons to return home while restoring demographic changes that might have occurred under Assad’s brutal repression.
Barring Foreign Troops
For the past several decades, foreign troops and military installations from Russia, Turkey, and Iran have been stationed in Syria. To emerge as a truly independent country, the government must ask foreign powers to withdraw their forces from the country. The Syrian government needs to stress that, given that Syria has entered a new era, hosting foreign powers is no longer necessary and only undermines Syria’s sovereignty.
Russia: The new government should call on Russia to withdraw its forces from Syria. The Syrian government has already demanded that Russia withdraw its military contingent by mid-February and can now take advantage of Russia’s limited military capabilities due to the continuing war in Ukraine.
The Syrian government should also abolish the Astana process that allowed Russia and Iran to use their militaries to ensure the survival of Assad’s regime while serving their strategic regional interests. Furthermore, the government should assert that the two countries can develop an alternate mutually beneficial relationship in many spheres, including economic development.
Turkey: Given that Turkey supported the rebels in their drive to oust Assad, it will be much harder for the Syrian government to rid itself of the Turkish military presence in Syria. Like Russia, Turkey also used the Astana framework to justify its military buildup, especially in northern Syria, to battle Kurdish forces, which Ankara views as critical to its national interests.
Other than emphasizing Syria’s sovereignty, the new government should offer Turkey plans to combat terrorist groups, negotiate the return of Syrian refugees, engage with Syrian Kurds to reach a compromise that deals with Turkey’s security concerns, offer extensive economic cooperation, propose phased withdraw of forces, and seek international support to exert diplomatic and financial pressure on Turkey.
Iran: Ahmed al-Sharaa has already demanded that Iran withdraw its forces and all of its military installations from Syria. His government should demand non-interference in sovereign Syria, and revoke access to military compounds previously used by Iran, strengthen border security to avert Iran from reentering Syria, and prevent it from smuggling weapons to Hezbollah.
Moreover, the new regime should threaten to cancel all bilateral economic cooperation if Iran does not respect its sovereignty, seeking support from the UN to pressure Iran to respect Syrian sovereignty and make it clear to Tehran that it will not permit the use of Syria as a staging theater to threaten Israel.
Israel: Israel took advantage of Assad’s fall and started massive bombardments to destroy Assad’s military installations and weapons depots while occupying the buffer zone and Mount Hermon. Given that Israel is extraordinarily sensitive about its security, the al-Sharaa government ought to tread carefully with Israel to prevent any military conflagration that would dangerously undermine the urgent need to rehabilitate the country.
The new government should fully adhere to the 1974 disengagement agreement (to which it has already committed itself) and ask Israel to do the same, making it clear that it will seek a peaceful solution to all conflicts with Israel. It is essential to establish back-channel communications to discuss border security, propose confidence-building measures, including water management in the border area, and work with the United Nations Disengagement Observers Force to ensure efficient monitoring of the buffer zone.
It is hard to overstate the colossal task that al-Sharaa and the new government in Syria must undertake on all fronts to stabilize the country and avoid violence internally and externally. It should be noted that Syria cannot tackle this monumental task alone. The US, the EU, the Arab states, and Israel have a vested interest in maintaining regional stability and security and need to collaborate with the new Syrian regime to achieve their mutual objectives, starting by lifting the designation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization and bestowing legitimacy on its governing authority.
Thus far, all signs point to the new Syrian government's commitment to executing its publicly stated goal of ending suffering and forging a new path to peace and security, which the Syrian people desperately long for.
—Dr. Alon Ben-Meir
Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.