Alon Ben-Meir
In last week’s article entitled “The Four Psychological Dimensions Behind Hamas’ Attack and Israel's Retaliation,” I explored how the historical, religious, ideological, and humanitarian dimensions have impacted the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which culminated with the most violent conflagration since Israel's creation in 1948. During this period, new indisputable realities were created that neither side could dramatically change without incurring significant setbacks if not catastrophic outcomes. I maintain that there are no credible counter-scenarios to show how and under what circumstances the following nine political and factual realities can be dramatically altered and still reach an enduring Israeli-Palestinian peaceful coexistence.
The Demographic Factor
Israelis and Palestinians have become increasingly interspersed, and separating them territorially is simply impossible. There are roughly 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank, over two million in Gaza, and two million in Israel proper. Conversely, there are over 700,000 Israelis in the West Bank, including 230,000 in East Jerusalem. The total number of Israeli Jews is almost equal to the combined Palestinian population in the three areas, roughly 7 million each. Under no circumstances will either side be able to uproot the other or attempt ethnic cleansing by any means, including violence. In fact, their interspersed population has only increased rather than decreased over the past few decades.
The Unsustainability of the Occupation
After 57 years of occupation, the relationship between the two sides has never been worse than today. Israel’s success in building and expanding settlements in the West Bank has only deepened the Palestinian resistance to the occupation and their resolve to end it by any means, including violence. The intensified violence of recent years, especially since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war (during which nearly 600 Palestinians were killed in the West Bank), only demonstrates how precarious and unsustainable the occupation is. The Palestinians’ continuing oppression, suffering, and displacement under Israeli military control only ensured that they would never accept the occupation as a way of life.
The Resilience of the Hamas Movement
After nearly one year of ferocious war in Gaza, Hamas lost more than 17,000 of its fighters, including several of its top leaders, while suffering massive destruction of its infrastructure. Even though Hamas has been militarily shattered, Israel’s military might still fail to defeat it entirely. More importantly, Hamas remained an indestructible nationalist resistance movement, and regardless of whether Israel exits Gaza by a mediated arrangement or maintains its military control, Israel cannot destroy Hamas as a movement. Hamas has a significant presence in the West Bank and will continue to resist Israel violently and receive political and material support from Iran and its proxies.
The Palestinians’ National Aspiration
The Palestinians’ national aspiration for statehood has been the driving force behind their resistance to Israel and was only further strengthened in recent years. It is true that the Palestinians have missed many opportunities to forge peace with Israel based on a two-state solution. Nevertheless, their right to establish their own state is anchored on historical, legal, and factual foundations, which cannot be denied by any party, including Israel. The past 57 years of occupation offer a compelling lesson: the Palestinians will never give up their right, and no power can force them to abandon their national aspirations, regardless of how much more loss and despair they may endure. Palestine is currently recognized by 146 countries, including several European states.
Iran and its “Axis of Resistance”
Since the revolution in 1979, Iran has been seeking to become the region’s hegemon, and to advance its ambition, it has opted to support the Palestinian cause while threatening Israel’s existence. Tehran provided financial support and military equipment to several resistance groups against Israel, especially Hamas and Hezbollah, the “axis of resistance.” Regardless of how badly Hamas and Hezbollah are militarily degraded, Iran is there to stay and will help them reconstitute themselves. Israel cannot destroy Iran, but ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would pull the rug from underneath Tehran, lessen its ability to use the Palestinian cause as a rallying cry against Israel and the US, and mitigate Iran’s perceived existential threat to Israel.
The US Position on a Two-State Solution
Every US administration since Israel’s inception has supported an Israeli-Palestinian peace based on a two-state solution. Over the last three decades, the US has tried to mediate an agreement between them but has failed, mainly because both sides have refused to make certain concessions the other was demanding. Although the US never put its foot down and insisted that both sides make concessions to forge an agreement, it has never deviated from the principle that a two-state solution remains the only practical solution, which President Biden forcefully reiterated in his speech to the UNGA. Israel, in particular, must understand that there is no prospect that any future US administration will change its position.
The Position of the Arab States
Although the Arab states have grown weary of the Palestinians’ intransigence, they too have all along insisted that an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement based on a two-state solution remains the only viable option. This position was at the heart of the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 and remains central to a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace. Although, in addition to Egypt and Jordan, four Arab states have normalized relations with Israel via the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia froze its negotiations over the normalization of relations with Israel in the wake of the Gaza war. The Saudis insisted that there would be no further talks unless Israel established a clear path that would lead to the creation of a Palestinian state.
The Inevitability of a Two-State Solution
Even though a growing number of Israelis strongly feel that a two-state solution is no longer viable, if it has ever been, there is no other feasible option that will bring closure to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A multitude of Israelis have fallen victim to the false narrative that a Palestinian state poses an existential danger to Israel when, in truth, Israel’s ultimate national security rests with the creation of a Palestinian state with full cooperation on all national security matters.
The perils of pipe-dreams
The messianic Israelis and the fanatic Islamist Palestinians who still believe they can prevail by usurping the other’s land and rights are perilously mistaken and are making the conflict ever more intractable and violent. The Israel-Hamas war and still the ongoing violence in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank have starkly demonstrated that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will only intensify as time passes and become progressively vicious and inhumane.
The greater tragic dimension of the conflict is that the continuing vicious cycle of violence is poisoning one generation of Israelis and Palestinians after another. Death, destruction, and dehumanization have become natural, reinforcing the deadly and perpetual enmity towards the other, as manifested by Hamas’ horrific attack and Israel’s retaliation. This terrifying development, however, will change nothing at the core reality of Israeli and Palestinian coexistence, regardless of how many more wars and violent conflagrations they will encounter in the future. They are stuck and must now choose the nature of their coexistence.
Sadly, the current Israeli and Palestinian leadership are wallowed in their morally corrupt and politically dangerous policies that prevent them from objectively evaluating the above political and factual realities, which cannot be wished away. A new leadership is needed on both sides that has a better grasp of the inevitability of coexistence and realizes that a two-state solution is not a gift they accord the other but a mutual life-and-death necessity that will shape the destiny of future Israeli and Palestinian generations.