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Gold to shine brighter; risks in equity, weddings keep prices elevated (IANS Analysis)

 
By Animesh Deb
New Delhi, Nov 18 (IANS) Equity market risks along with healthy demand from wedding season will push gold prices higher in the near-term, analysts said.


Lately, gold prices, both in domestic and global markets, have risen steadily due to favourable broader market fundamentals.

Accordingly, the last traded price of gold at the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) was Rs 49,159 per 10 gm.

According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, the spot prices for pure gold stood at Rs 49,240 per 10 gm in the domestic market, which excludes GST and making charges.

"Demand for gold with the onset of the marriage season in India is expected to keep its prices elevated," said Anuj Gupta, Vice President at IIFL Securities.

"Inflationary concerns, coupled with uncertainty in global equity markets are supportive for safe haven products such as gold," he added.

At present, India is a major user and importer of precious metal. In volume terms, the country reportedly imports 800-900 tonnes of gold annually.

Besides, analysts see a possible overheating in global equities, because of which investors may move towards gold in order to hedge their portfolios.

Domestic gold prices are expected to move in a range of Rs 50,000-51,000 per 10 gm, while global benchmark prices are seen at $1,890-$1900 per ounce by the end of this year, with a support of $1,840, said Gupta.

Currently, gold futures in the US are hovering at around $1,850 per ounce.

"There are basically three or four factors relating to gold. Higher liquidity in the US economy, overvalued equity, and rising global Covid-19 caseload will support gold," said Ajay Kedia, Head of Kedia Advisory.

Additionally, higher investment in gold through the exchange traded fund (ETF) route will also support physical gold, Kedia said.

Physical and ETF gold are interlinked, and they take cues from each other.

However, he added that the US Fed's stance on interest rates and the dollar index will be closely monitored by the investors.

"By year end, I see benchmark gold prices at $1,900-$1,920 per ounce. In current condition, gold is far more attractive than other asset classes," Kedia said.

(Animesh Deb can be contacted at animesh.d@ians.in)

--IANS
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